外需不佳下全年-1%，下半年持续拖累。今年铜消费出口在三四月份有阶段性好转，原因主要是春节后和疫情后的订单集中释放，后续出口数据在5月份再度回归下降趋势。我们在此前的出口专题报告中曾提到，出口东南亚国家数据或仍有一定韧性，而后续随欧美需求放缓趋势不改，出口东南亚将逐步受到影响，目前已经观察到数据兑现。综上，预计对今年出口总体将小幅负增长。分板块来看，除新能源汽车外，其余电子、家电和电缆等板块预计均有不同程度下降。。✌YJvXOzBx老攻APPmPHtAlW(总)(zongzong)(而)(erer)(言)(yanyan)(之)(zhizhi)(，)(，，)(聚)(juju)(氨)(anan)(酯)(zhizhi)(合)(hehe)(成)(chengcheng)(革)(gege)(及)(jiji)(复)(fufu)(合)(hehe)(材)(caicai)(料)(liaoliao)(优)(youyou)(势)(shishi)(明)(mingming)(显)(xianxian)(、)(、、)(特)(tete)(色)(sese)(鲜)(xianxian)(明)(mingming)(、)(、、)(与)(yuyu)(众)(zhongzhong)(不)(bubu)(同)(tongtong)(。)(。。)(公)(gonggong)(司)(sisi)(在)(zaizai)(与)(yuyu)(国)(guoguo)(内)(neinei)(外)(waiwai)(品)(pinpin)(牌)(paipai)(客)(keke)(户)(huhu)(接)(jiejie)(触)(chuchu)(过)(guoguo)(程)(chengcheng)(中)(zhongzhong)(，)(，，)(发)(fafa)(现)(xianxian)(客)(keke)(户)(huhu)(越)(yueyue)(来)(lailai)(越)(yueyue)(深)(shenshen)(刻)(keke)(地)(didi)(认)(renren)(识)(shishi)(到)(daodao)(其)(qiqi)(优)(youyou)(势)(shishi)(与)(yuyu)(特)(tete)(点)(diandian)(，)(，，)(并)(bingbing)(积)(jiji)(极)(jiji)(开)(kaikai)(发)(fafa)(应)(yingying)(用)(yongyong)(安)(anan)(利)(lili)(P)(PP)(U)(UU)(材)(caicai)(料)(liaoliao)(，)(，，)(期)(qiqi)(望)(wangwang)(扩)(kuokuo)(大)(dada)(合)(hehe)(作)(zuozuo)(。)(。。)。

(对对)↗(此此)☼(，，)✯(蔚蔚)♛(来来)◎(回回)●(应应)√(称称)│(，，)✈(““)卐(根根)♥(据据)®(业业)➳(务务)❤(需需)●(求求)©(，，)°(我我)웃(们们)♂(推推)︻(迟迟)≈(了了)❥(电电)☏(池池)♒(量量)➳(产产)÷(的的)ღ(时时)√(间间)◈(。。)↓(项项)유(目目)↖(在在)♪(按按)❤(照照)▽(新新)✘(的的)□(量量)│(产产)◈(时时)★(间间)→(正正)◈(常常)◇(推推)☠(进进)♚(。。)¡(””)℃

YTGp9b7qE老攻APPX6BOUw(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(3)(33)(年)(niannian)(6)(66)(月)(yueyue)(1)(11)(7)(77)(日)(riri)(，)(，，)(公)(gonggong)(司)(sisi)(发)(fafa)(布)(bubu)(股)(gugu)(权)(quanquan)(激)(jiji)(励)(lili)(办)(banban)(法)(fafa)(修)(xiuxiu)(订)(dingding)(稿)(gaogao)(，)(，，)(对)(duidui)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(2)(22)(年)(niannian)(原)(yuanyuan)(有)(youyou)(计)(jiji)(划)(huahua)(进)(jinjin)(行)(xingxing)(修)(xiuxiu)(订)(dingding)(，)(，，)(具)(juju)(体)(titi)(条)(tiaotiao)(款)(kuankuan)(为)(weiwei)(“)(““)(以)(yiyi)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(2)(22)(年)(niannian)(营)(yingying)(收)(shoushou)(、)(、、)(净)(jingjing)(利)(lili)(润)(runrun)(为)(weiwei)(基)(jiji)(数)(shushu)(，)(，，)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(3)(33)(年)(niannian)(营)(yingying)(收)(shoushou)(或)(huohuo)(净)(jingjing)(利)(lili)(润)(runrun)(同)(tongtong)(比)(bibi)(增)(zengzeng)(长)(changchang)(不)(bubu)(低)(didi)(于)(yuyu)(3)(33)(5)(55)(%)(%%)(，)(，，)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(4)(44)(年)(niannian)(营)(yingying)(收)(shoushou)(或)(huohuo)(净)(jingjing)(利)(lili)(润)(runrun)(同)(tongtong)(比)(bibi)(增)(zengzeng)(长)(changchang)(不)(bubu)(低)(didi)(于)(yuyu)(8)(88)(3)(33)(%)(%%)(”)(””)(。)(。。)(以)(yiyi)(激)(jiji)(励)(lili)(计)(jiji)(划)(huahua)(为)(weiwei)(参)(cancan)(考)(kaokao)(，)(，，)(则)(zeze)(对)(duidui)(应)(yingying)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(3)(33)(/)(//)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(4)(44)(年)(niannian)(营)(yingying)(收)(shoushou)(、)(、、)(净)(jingjing)(利)(lili)(润)(runrun)(分)(fenfen)(别)(biebie)(为)(weiwei)(4)(44)(1)(11)(2)(22)(.)(..)(6)(66)(3)(33)(/)(//)(5)(55)(5)(55)(9)(99)(.)(..)(3)(33)(4)(44)(亿)(yiyi)(元)(yuanyuan)(、)(、、)(3)(33)(1)(11)(.)(..)(3)(33)(8)(88)(/)(//)(4)(44)(2)(22)(.)(..)(5)(55)(3)(33)(亿)(yiyi)(元)(yuanyuan)(。)(。。)(股)(gugu)(权)(quanquan)(激)(jiji)(励)(lili)(计)(jiji)(划)(huahua)(彰)(zhangzhang)(显)(xianxian)(公)(gonggong)(司)(sisi)(业)(yeye)(绩)(jiji)(信)(xinxin)(心)(xinxin)(，)(，，)(提)(titi)(升)(shengsheng)(核)(hehe)(心)(xinxin)(团)(tuantuan)(队)(duidui)(凝)(ningning)(聚)(juju)(力)(lili)(。)(。。)。

　　“womenxianxiashitidianershijige，zuoleqinianle。”“zhuyaozuodejiushishouhoufuwu，xiangxinninzhiyaoyongguojiuhuijiaodezhi。”qizhong，zichengweiyinshengPOSjidailishangdedianjiaxuanchuandao。zaiqixiangbeijingshangbaojizhetigongdeyingyezhizhaoxianshi，gaidailishangmingchengwei“kunmingshiwuhuaquzhoulaizhouwangdianzidian”，jingyingdianlidianziyuanqijianxiaoshou。dangbeiwenjizaidianshangpingtaijiaoyishifouyouweiguifengxian，gaikefuhuiying，“zhengceshangjianguanyangezhishizhenduixinyongka，anquanfangmiangengbuyongdanxin，meibizijinnengzhaxundaolaiyuan。qishikehuzenmeyongkashiguanjian，shuakashijiangjiufangfade，yiwomenduoniandejingyan，kehuzhiyaoanzhaofangfazuoconglaibuhuibeifengkong”。。TYLLmYgg老攻APPIYy5JPD✞　　数据来源：iFind，ATK，金瑞期货。。

　　yinweizijinlianduanlie，yunduqicheyuqunian2yuetingchan。jinnian2yue，↓　　Arm预计将成为自Rivian以来在美国上市的最有价值的公司。Rivian于2021年底上市，初始市值为700亿美元。。qjiitqZIEK老攻APPitVK4mT3

　　不仅如此，由于去年不断遭受疫情的扰动，扰动去年消费节奏，使去年的国内消费严重偏离季节性。因而，不能再使用预估同比增速的方式来考虑下半年的消费情况；在此，采用往年季节性消费节奏进行下半年的延展，预计2023年全年锌消费增速5.3%，整个下半年同比增速3.5%。纵然今年消费累计同比高达5.3%，但从绝对量上看依旧不及2021年。。◎QzCc8BfiWw老攻APPtiVghs78 (铜)(tongtong)(精)(jingjing)(矿)(kuangkuang)(项)(xiangxiang)(目)(mumu)(增)(zengzeng)(速)(susu)(逐)(zhuzhu)(年)(niannian)(下)(xiaxia)(降)(jiangjiang)(，)(，，)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(4)(44)(年)(niannian)(预)(yuyu)(计)(jiji)(+)(++)(3)(33)(%)(%%)(，)(，，)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(5)(55)(年)(niannian)(预)(yuyu)(计)(jiji)(+)(++)(2)(22)(%)(%%)(。)(。。)(本)(benben)(轮)(lunlun)(铜)(tongtong)(价)(jiajia)(上)(shangshang)(行)(xingxing)(并)(bingbing)(未)(weiwei)(刺)(cici)(激)(jiji)(矿)(kuangkuang)(企)(qiqi)(大)(dada)(量)(liangliang)(增)(zengzeng)(加)(jiajia)(资)(zizi)(本)(benben)(开)(kaikai)(支)(zhizhi)(，)(，，)(未)(weiwei)(来)(lailai)(铜)(tongtong)(矿)(kuangkuang)(山)(shanshan)(项)(xiangxiang)(目)(mumu)(投)(toutou)(放)(fangfang)(逐)(zhuzhu)(年)(niannian)(进)(jinjin)(入)(ruru)(到)(daodao)(低)(didi)(增)(zengzeng)(速)(susu)(时)(shishi)(期)(qiqi)(。)(。。)(通)(tongtong)(过)(guoguo)(梳)(shushu)(理)(lili)(其)(qiqi)(财)(caicai)(报)(baobao)(，)(，，)(我)(wowo)(们)(menmen)(目)(mumu)(前)(qianqian)(预)(yuyu)(期)(qiqi)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(4)(44)(年)(niannian)(铜)(tongtong)(精)(jingjing)(矿)(kuangkuang)(增)(zengzeng)(6)(66)(8)(88)(万)(wanwan)(吨)(dundun)(（)(（（)(3)(33)(.)(..)(6)(66)(%)(%%)(）)(））)(，)(，，)(含)(hanhan)(今)(jinjin)(年)(niannian)(因)(yinyin)(气)(qiqi)(候)(houhou)(、)(、、)(政)(zhengzheng)(局)(juju)(等)(dengdeng)(问)(wenwen)(题)(titi)(扰)(raorao)(动)(dongdong)(造)(zaozao)(成)(chengcheng)(的)(dede)(减)(jianjian)(量)(liangliang)(1)(11)(0)(00)(万)(wanwan)(吨)(dundun)(，)(，，)(低)(didi)(品)(pinpin)(位)(weiwei)(造)(zaozao)(成)(chengcheng)(的)(dede)(影)(yingying)(响)(xiangxiang)(暂)(zanzan)(定)(dingding)(无)(wuwu)(法)(fafa)(弥)(mimi)(补)(bubu)(。)(。。)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(5)(55)(年)(niannian)(预)(yuyu)(计)(jiji)(项)(xiangxiang)(目)(mumu)(投)(toutou)(放)(fangfang)(4)(44)(4)(44)(万)(wanwan)(吨)(dundun)(，)(，，)(增)(zengzeng)(速)(susu)(回)(huihui)(落)(luoluo)(至)(zhizhi)(2)(22)(.)(..)(3)(33)(%)(%%)(。)(。。)(而)(erer)(在)(zaizai)(2)(22)(0)(00)(2)(22)(5)(55)(年)(niannian)(后)(houhou)(，)(，，)(大)(dada)(型)(xingxing)(项)(xiangxiang)(目)(mumu)(的)(dede)(储)(chuchu)(备)(beibei)(偏)(pianpian)(少)(shaoshao)(，)(，，)(铜)(tongtong)(矿)(kuangkuang)(增)(zengzeng)(速)(susu)(重)(zhongzhong)(心)(xinxin)(预)(yuyu)(计)(jiji)(下)(xiaxia)(移)(yiyi)(至)(zhizhi)(1)(11)(.)(..)(5)(55)(%)(%%)(左)(zuozuo)(右)(youyou)(。)(。。)。

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